Showing posts with label #SPX. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #SPX. Show all posts

Monday, January 26, 2015

SPY And The U.S. Economic Index In 2014: A Guide


“Mirrored by about a zillion data points of light in either AppleWorks or Microsoft Excel spreadsheets on multiple media here at the home office of my Risky Business, changes in the U.S. economy are reflected by changes in its equity market. And vice versa.” So began “You Got to Know When to Hold ’em,” my very first blog post published here back in 2011 on one of the most important methods I employ to assess the relationship between the American economy and the large-capitalization segment of the stock market.

Last year, our droogies at Seeking Alpha published almost a dozen of my articles focused on monthly studies of the relationship between the economy, as represented by the proprietary U.S. Economic Index, and the large-cap segment of the market, as represented by the nonproprietary SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Links to all the pieces in this series appear below in reverse chronological order.

This year, I plan to expand my coverage in a couple of ways. First, I will complement increasingly the objective facts with my subjective opinions as to their potential meaning in the context of the SPY-USEI relationship. And, second, I will examine the relationship between the economy and the small-cap segment of the market. All the resultant stories will be published at either J.J.’s Risky Business or Seeking Alpha.

I suspect the U.S. Federal Reserve’s actual announcement of the end of asset purchases under its latest quantitative-easing program Oct. 29 and its projected announcement of the beginning of federal-funds-rate hikes April 29 make monitoring of the continuous feedback loop between the economy and the market more significant now than it has been at any other time during the past three years.

SPY And The U.S. Economic Index In 2014: Linkfest













Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 22, 2014


The New York Stock Exchange released its data on securities market credit earlier this month than it historically has done most months, so over the weekend I was able to bring up-to-date the levels of my Margin Debt Directional Indicator, or MDDI, and my Securities Market Credit Risk Rank, or SMC Risk Rank, as well as the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of NYSE margin debt and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

Here are links to all the 2014 articles in this series centered on the risk of speculation in the equity market:














Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Monday, November 10, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 10, 2014


Between all the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings this week and the Hong Kong-Shanghai exchange linkup next week, China appears to be at the center of the economic/market multiverse at this point in time. Accordingly, it is completely unsurprising I focused on the country’s prospects in my “China’s President Xi Jinping Signals Economic Growth Could Slow To 7% In APEC CEO Summit Speech” at the International Business Times Sunday.

I also was able to bring up-to-date my proprietary U.S. Economic Index and the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of the USEI and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Following are links to all the articles in this series published at Seeking Alpha this year:











Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Monday, November 3, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 3, 2014


The Institute for Supply Management released its October 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Monday and most likely will release its October 2014 Nonmanufacturing ISM Report On Business Wednesday, which means I soon will be able to bring up-to-date my proprietary U.S. Economic Index and the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of the USEI and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). My article on these data series will appear either at J.J.’s Risky Business or at Seeking Alpha.

Meanwhile, Seeking Alpha published last week my latest piece about securities market credit at the New York Stock Exchange. As customary, I brought up-to-date the levels of my Margin Debt Directional Indicator, or MDDI, and my Securities Market Credit Risk Rank, or SMC Risk Rank, as well as the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of NYSE margin debt and SPY. Below are links to all the 2014 stories in this series centered on the risk of speculation in the equity market:












Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Monday, October 6, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 6, 2014


Beginnings and ends of quarters are the most wonderful times of the year for those addicted to crunching the numbers related to the economy and equity market. The pictures painted by the data are sometimes good, sometimes bad and sometimes ugly. You can decide which is which in the following three pieces published by our droogies at Seeking Alpha since the appearance of the Risky Business Monitor linkfest last week:




Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 29, 2014

The Institute for Supply Management most likely will release its September 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Wednesday and its September 2014 Nonmanufacturing ISM Report On Business Friday, which means I soon will be able to bring up-to-date my proprietary U.S. Economic Index and the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of the USEI and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). My article on these data series will appear either at J.J.’s Risky Business or at Seeking Alpha.

Meanwhile, our droogies at SA published my “NYSE Margin Debt Edges Higher In August: Risk Rank At No. 23” since the appearance of the Risky Business Monitor linkfest last week.

Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Monday, September 22, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 22, 2014


The New York Stock Exchange may report its data on securities market credit for August as soon as Friday, which means I might be able to bring up-to-date by this time next week my Margin Debt Directional Indicator, or MDDI; Securities Market Credit Risk Rank, or SMC Risk Rank; and comparison of the historical monthly levels of NYSE margin debt and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Meanwhile, our droogies at Seeking Alpha have published the following pieces on the subject this year:










Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Monday, September 15, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 15, 2014


Multivariate analyses indicate my proprietary U.S. Economic Index may have hit its peak for the year last month, especially given the anticipated end of asset purchases under the absolutely large U.S. Federal Reserve quantitative-easing program and the expected beginning of such purchases under the relatively small European Central Bank QE program.

As we await confirmation or nonconfirmation of this suggested peak circa Oct. 3, I note our droogies at Seeking Alpha have published this year the following pieces on the USEI and the associated comparisons of the historical monthly levels of the index and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY):









Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Monday, August 18, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 18, 2014

Multivariate analyses indicate my proprietary U.S. Economic Index either may have hit its peak for 2014 last month or might hit its peak for the year this month. Therefore, I can’t wait for my next USEI-centered article, which will be published at J.J.’s Risky Business or Seeking Alpha circa Sept. 5. Meanwhile, our droogies at SA have published this year the following pieces on the USEI and the associated comparisons of the historical monthly levels of the index and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY):








Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.