Monday, November 17, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 17, 2014

Billboarding a project in advance of its completion is a dangerous thing to do in the publishing game, but I anticipate producing three articles about U.S. Federal Reserve policy by this time next week. All these data-intensive pieces will be published at either J.J.’s Risky Business or Seeking Alpha.

Meanwhile, I briefly covered the Group of 20 leaders’ communiqué issued at the conclusion of their two-day summit in Brisbane, Australia, in “G-20 Aims To Boost Its GDP 2% By 2018” at the International Business Times Sunday. As noted in the story: “U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron at the summit pledged to put ‘rocket boosters’ behind a plan for [a European Union]-U.S. free-trade agreement, BBC News reported. Cameron said EU and U.S. leaders all agreed the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP, ‘is a deal we want.’” An EU-U.S. free-trade agreement on rocket boosters: What could possibly go wrong?

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Monday, November 10, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 10, 2014


Between all the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings this week and the Hong Kong-Shanghai exchange linkup next week, China appears to be at the center of the economic/market multiverse at this point in time. Accordingly, it is completely unsurprising I focused on the country’s prospects in my “China’s President Xi Jinping Signals Economic Growth Could Slow To 7% In APEC CEO Summit Speech” at the International Business Times Sunday.

I also was able to bring up-to-date my proprietary U.S. Economic Index and the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of the USEI and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Following are links to all the articles in this series published at Seeking Alpha this year:











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Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Monday, November 3, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 3, 2014


The Institute for Supply Management released its October 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Monday and most likely will release its October 2014 Nonmanufacturing ISM Report On Business Wednesday, which means I soon will be able to bring up-to-date my proprietary U.S. Economic Index and the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of the USEI and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). My article on these data series will appear either at J.J.’s Risky Business or at Seeking Alpha.

Meanwhile, Seeking Alpha published last week my latest piece about securities market credit at the New York Stock Exchange. As customary, I brought up-to-date the levels of my Margin Debt Directional Indicator, or MDDI, and my Securities Market Credit Risk Rank, or SMC Risk Rank, as well as the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of NYSE margin debt and SPY. Below are links to all the 2014 stories in this series centered on the risk of speculation in the equity market:












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Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 27, 2014

The Federal Open Market Committee appears poised to announce the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s current quantitative-easing program, aka QE3+, Wednesday. If the FOMC does it, then I believe the present equity-market bubble may begin deflating immediately thereafter. If the FOMC does not do it, then I think the stock-market bubble might remain inflated a while longer.

Meanwhile, our droogies at Seeking Alpha published this month 13 of my articles focused on the behaviors of carefully chosen exchange-traded funds during the first three quarters of the year. I employ multiple metrics to monitor 12 of these ETFs on a daily basis and one of them on a periodic basis because I believe their relative performances speak volumes about the condition of the market. Below are links to all these stories:














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Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.


Monday, October 20, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 20, 2014

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard appeared to halt the equity market’s latest period of adjustment with comments on Bloomberg Television Thursday about the Federal Open Market Committee possibly considering the continuation of its current quantitative-easing program, aka QE3+.

A nonvoter on the FOMC this year, Bullard told Bloomberg: “Inflation expectations are declining in the U.S. That’s an important consideration for a central bank. And for that reason I think that a logical policy response at this juncture may be to delay the end of the QE.”

The FOMC will announce its choice concerning QE3+ Oct. 29. If its members agree with Bullard’s position, then I believe the current stock-market bubble can remain inflated a while longer. If its members disagree with Bullard’s position, then I think the bubble will commence deflating immediately thereafter.

Meanwhile, our droogies at Seeking Alpha published six of my articles focused on Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded funds since the Risky Business Monitor linkfest last week, as follows:







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Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.