“Mirrored by about a zillion data points of light in either AppleWorks or Microsoft Excel spreadsheets on multiple media here at the home office of my Risky Business, changes in the U.S. economy are reflected by changes in its equity market. And vice versa.” So began “You Got to Know When to Hold ’em,” my very first blog post published here back in 2011 on one of the most important methods I employ to assess the relationship between the American economy and the large-capitalization segment of the stock market.
Last year, our droogies at Seeking Alpha published almost a dozen of my articles focused on monthly studies of the relationship between the economy, as represented by the proprietary U.S. Economic Index, and the large-cap segment of the market, as represented by the nonproprietary SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Links to all the pieces in this series appear below in reverse chronological order.
This year, I plan to expand my coverage in a couple of ways. First, I will complement increasingly the objective facts with my subjective opinions as to their potential meaning in the context of the SPY-USEI relationship. And, second, I will examine the relationship between the economy and the small-cap segment of the market. All the resultant stories will be published at either J.J.’s Risky Business or Seeking Alpha.
I suspect the U.S. Federal Reserve’s actual announcement of the end of asset purchases under its latest quantitative-easing program Oct. 29 and its projected announcement of the beginning of federal-funds-rate hikes April 29 make monitoring of the continuous feedback loop between the economy and the market more significant now than it has been at any other time during the past three years.
SPY And The U.S. Economic Index In 2014: Linkfest