Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 15, 2014

Facts are more important than opinions in my world, where I employ the former to grow the latter. A case in point: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s cessation of purchases under the first two of its three formal quantitative-easing programs was associated with significant periods of adjustment in equity prices in all three major market-capitalization classes, so the two consolidations related to the end of purchases under the last one of these programs appear completely unsurprising to me.

During the first consolidation, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) intraday declined to $181.92 Oct. 15 from $201.90 Sept. 19, a decrease of -$19.98, or 9.90 percent. During the second (and continuing) consolidation, SPY intraday dipped to $198.78 Monday from $208.47 Dec. 5, a drop of -$9.69, or 4.65 percent. And the most significant thing to me is that these two consolidations likely represent not the end but the beginning of the stock market’s latest period of adjustment, as indicated in these three articles at Seeking Alpha:




Meanwhile, I also had a couple of pieces of interest published at the International Business Times over the weekend, as follows:



As it turned out, of course, it was not Apollo Global Management LLC (APO) but the privately held BC Partners Ltd. and its associates that eventually landed PetSmart Inc. (PETM), as Reuters later reported.

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Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 8, 2014


Seeking Alpha will make the third of the three data-intensive articles about U.S. Federal Reserve policy mentioned in past Risky Business Monitors publicly available early Wednesday. Because it builds on the framework of the preceding pieces, it may be the most interesting of all.

Meanwhile, here are links to a couple of stories published by Seeking Alpha in the past week:



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Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 1, 2014


The Institute for Supply Management published its November 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Monday and probably will publish its November 2014 Nonmanufacturing ISM Report On Business Wednesday, which means I soon will be able to bring up-to-date my proprietary U.S. Economic Index and the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of the USEI and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). My article on these data series will appear either at J.J.’s Risky Business or at Seeking Alpha.

Also appearing at either of those locations this week will be the second of the three data-intensive pieces about U.S. Federal Reserve policy I mentioned in the past two Risky Business Monitors.

Meanwhile, here are links to three stories of note published by either the International Business Times or Seeking Alpha in the past week:




Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.


Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 24, 2014

The New York Stock Exchange most likely will publish this holiday-shortened week its data on securities market credit, which means I should soon be able to bring up-to-date the levels of my Margin Debt Directional Indicator, or MDDI, and my Securities Market Credit Risk Rank, or SMC Risk Rank, as well as the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of NYSE margin debt and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The article based on these data will be published at either J.J.’s Risky Business or Seeking Alpha.

Meanwhile, Seeking Alpha will publish at least the first of the three data-intensive pieces about U.S. Federal Reserve policy to which I referred in the Risky Business Monitor last week.

Over the weekend, I briefly covered Russian President Vladimir Putin’s wide-ranging interview with the state-owned Tass news agency in a story titled “Russia Will Not Rebuild Iron Curtain In Wake Of Economic Sanctions Over Ukraine: Vladimir Putin” at the International Business Times Sunday. Given his country’s petroeconomy, he had plenty to say about the effects of those sanctions imposed by the European Union and the U.S., as well as the status of his nation’s energy sector.

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Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.


Monday, November 17, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 17, 2014

Billboarding a project in advance of its completion is a dangerous thing to do in the publishing game, but I anticipate producing three articles about U.S. Federal Reserve policy by this time next week. All these data-intensive pieces will be published at either J.J.’s Risky Business or Seeking Alpha.

Meanwhile, I briefly covered the Group of 20 leaders’ communiqué issued at the conclusion of their two-day summit in Brisbane, Australia, in “G-20 Aims To Boost Its GDP 2% By 2018” at the International Business Times Sunday. As noted in the story: “U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron at the summit pledged to put ‘rocket boosters’ behind a plan for [a European Union]-U.S. free-trade agreement, BBC News reported. Cameron said EU and U.S. leaders all agreed the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP, ‘is a deal we want.’” An EU-U.S. free-trade agreement on rocket boosters: What could possibly go wrong?

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Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.