Monday, October 27, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 27, 2014

The Federal Open Market Committee appears poised to announce the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s current quantitative-easing program, aka QE3+, Wednesday. If the FOMC does it, then I believe the present equity-market bubble may begin deflating immediately thereafter. If the FOMC does not do it, then I think the stock-market bubble might remain inflated a while longer.

Meanwhile, our droogies at Seeking Alpha published this month 13 of my articles focused on the behaviors of carefully chosen exchange-traded funds during the first three quarters of the year. I employ multiple metrics to monitor 12 of these ETFs on a daily basis and one of them on a periodic basis because I believe their relative performances speak volumes about the condition of the market. Below are links to all these stories:














Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.


Monday, October 20, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 20, 2014

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard appeared to halt the equity market’s latest period of adjustment with comments on Bloomberg Television Thursday about the Federal Open Market Committee possibly considering the continuation of its current quantitative-easing program, aka QE3+.

A nonvoter on the FOMC this year, Bullard told Bloomberg: “Inflation expectations are declining in the U.S. That’s an important consideration for a central bank. And for that reason I think that a logical policy response at this juncture may be to delay the end of the QE.”

The FOMC will announce its choice concerning QE3+ Oct. 29. If its members agree with Bullard’s position, then I believe the current stock-market bubble can remain inflated a while longer. If its members disagree with Bullard’s position, then I think the bubble will commence deflating immediately thereafter.

Meanwhile, our droogies at Seeking Alpha published six of my articles focused on Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded funds since the Risky Business Monitor linkfest last week, as follows:







Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Monday, October 13, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 13, 2014

In advance of each and every trading day, I assess the condition of the equity market by bringing up-to-date an assortment of spreadsheets based on multiple stock-market metrics that collectively constitute my Risky Business Daily Market Seismometer. This assessment encompasses examination of these metrics as they apply to the Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded funds that carve the S&P 500 into nine slices. Completely uncoincidentally, sector SPDRs are the subjects of three of the four Seeking Alpha articles appearing in the Risky Business Monitor this week, as follows:





Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Monday, October 6, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 6, 2014


Beginnings and ends of quarters are the most wonderful times of the year for those addicted to crunching the numbers related to the economy and equity market. The pictures painted by the data are sometimes good, sometimes bad and sometimes ugly. You can decide which is which in the following three pieces published by our droogies at Seeking Alpha since the appearance of the Risky Business Monitor linkfest last week:




Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 29, 2014

The Institute for Supply Management most likely will release its September 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Wednesday and its September 2014 Nonmanufacturing ISM Report On Business Friday, which means I soon will be able to bring up-to-date my proprietary U.S. Economic Index and the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of the USEI and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). My article on these data series will appear either at J.J.’s Risky Business or at Seeking Alpha.

Meanwhile, our droogies at SA published my “NYSE Margin Debt Edges Higher In August: Risk Rank At No. 23” since the appearance of the Risky Business Monitor linkfest last week.

Related Reading





Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.