Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 22, 2014

The New York Stock Exchange released its data on securities market credit earlier this month than it historically has done most months, so over the weekend I was able to bring up-to-date the levels of my Margin Debt Directional Indicator, or MDDI, and my Securities Market Credit Risk Rank, or SMC Risk Rank, as well as the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of NYSE margin debt and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

Here are links to all the 2014 articles in this series centered on the risk of speculation in the equity market:

NYSE Margin Debt Climbs In November: Risk Rank At No. 22

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In October For First Time In Four Months: Risk Rank At No. 56

NYSE Margin Debt Inches Up In September: Risk Rank At No. 40

NYSE Margin Debt Edges Higher In August: Risk Rank At No. 23

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In July: Risk Rank At No. 30

NYSE Margin Debt Explodes To Near-Record High In June: Risk Rank At No. 1

NYSE Margin Debt Rises In May For First Time In 3 Months: Risk Rank At No. 21

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In April For Second Consecutive Month: Risk Rank At No. 53

NYSE Margin Debt Falls In March For First Time In 9 Months: Risk Rank At No. 55

NYSE Margin Debt Hits All-Time High Of $465.72 Billion In February, With Risk Rank At No. 2

NYSE Margin Debt Reaches Record $451.30 Billion In January, With Risk Rank At No. 10

NYSE Margin Debt Hits Record $444.93 Billion In December: Risk Rank At No. 1

NYSE Margin Debt As An Indicator Of Long-Term Movements In S&P 500

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 15, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 8, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 1, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 24, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 24, 2014

The New York Stock Exchange most likely will publish this holiday-shortened week its data on securities market credit, which means I should soon be able to bring up-to-date the levels of my Margin Debt Directional Indicator, or MDDI, and my Securities Market Credit Risk Rank, or SMC Risk Rank, as well as the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of NYSE margin debt and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The article based on these data will be published at either J.J.’s Risky Business or Seeking Alpha.

Meanwhile, Seeking Alpha will publish at least the first of the three data-intensive pieces about U.S. Federal Reserve policy to which I referred in the Risky Business Monitor last week.

Over the weekend, I briefly covered Russian President Vladimir Putin’s wide-ranging interview with the state-owned Tass news agency in a story titled “Russia Will Not Rebuild Iron Curtain In Wake Of Economic Sanctions Over Ukraine: Vladimir Putin” at the International Business Times Sunday. Given his country’s petroeconomy, he had plenty to say about the effects of those sanctions imposed by the European Union and the U.S., as well as the status of his nation’s energy sector.

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 17, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 10, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 3, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 27, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 17, 2014

Billboarding a project in advance of its completion is a dangerous thing to do in the publishing game, but I anticipate producing three articles about U.S. Federal Reserve policy by this time next week. All these data-intensive pieces will be published at either J.J.’s Risky Business or Seeking Alpha.

Meanwhile, I briefly covered the Group of 20 leaders’ communiqué issued at the conclusion of their two-day summit in Brisbane, Australia, in “G-20 Aims To Boost Its GDP 2% By 2018” at the International Business Times Sunday. As noted in the story: “U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron at the summit pledged to put ‘rocket boosters’ behind a plan for [a European Union]-U.S. free-trade agreement, BBC News reported. Cameron said EU and U.S. leaders all agreed the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP, ‘is a deal we want.’” An EU-U.S. free-trade agreement on rocket boosters: What could possibly go wrong?

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 10, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 3, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 27, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 20, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 3, 2014

The Institute for Supply Management released its October 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Monday and most likely will release its October 2014 Nonmanufacturing ISM Report On Business Wednesday, which means I soon will be able to bring up-to-date my proprietary U.S. Economic Index and the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of the USEI and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). My article on these data series will appear either at J.J.’s Risky Business or at Seeking Alpha.

Meanwhile, Seeking Alpha published last week my latest piece about securities market credit at the New York Stock Exchange. As customary, I brought up-to-date the levels of my Margin Debt Directional Indicator, or MDDI, and my Securities Market Credit Risk Rank, or SMC Risk Rank, as well as the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of NYSE margin debt and SPY. Below are links to all the 2014 stories in this series centered on the risk of speculation in the equity market:

NYSE Margin Debt Inches Up In September: Risk Rank At No. 40

NYSE Margin Debt Edges Higher In August: Risk Rank At No. 23

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In July: Risk Rank At No. 30

NYSE Margin Debt Explodes To Near-Record High In June: Risk Rank At No. 1

NYSE Margin Debt Rises In May For First Time In 3 Months: Risk Rank At No. 21

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In April For Second Consecutive Month: Risk Rank At No. 53

NYSE Margin Debt Falls In March For First Time In 9 Months: Risk Rank At No. 55

NYSE Margin Debt Hits All-Time High Of $465.72 Billion In February, With Risk Rank At No. 2

NYSE Margin Debt Reaches Record $451.30 Billion In January, With Risk Rank At No. 10

NYSE Margin Debt Hits Record $444.93 Billion In December: Risk Rank At No. 1

NYSE Margin Debt As An Indicator Of Long-Term Movements In S&P 500

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 27, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 20, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 13, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 6, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Oct. 6, 2014

Beginnings and ends of quarters are the most wonderful times of the year for those addicted to crunching the numbers related to the economy and equity market. The pictures painted by the data are sometimes good, sometimes bad and sometimes ugly. You can decide which is which in the following three pieces published by our droogies at Seeking Alpha since the appearance of the Risky Business Monitor linkfest last week:

SPDR S&P 500 ETF: SPY’s 2014 Third-Quarter Performance And Seasonality

SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF: MDY’s 2014 Third-Quarter Performance And Seasonality

IShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF: IJR’s 2014 Third Quarter Performance And Seasonality

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 29, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 22, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 15, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 8, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 29, 2014

The Institute for Supply Management most likely will release its September 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Wednesday and its September 2014 Nonmanufacturing ISM Report On Business Friday, which means I soon will be able to bring up-to-date my proprietary U.S. Economic Index and the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of the USEI and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). My article on these data series will appear either at J.J.’s Risky Business or at Seeking Alpha.

Meanwhile, our droogies at SA published my “NYSE Margin Debt Edges Higher In August: Risk Rank At No. 23” since the appearance of the Risky Business Monitor linkfest last week.

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 22, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 15, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 8, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 1, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 22, 2014

The New York Stock Exchange may report its data on securities market credit for August as soon as Friday, which means I might be able to bring up-to-date by this time next week my Margin Debt Directional Indicator, or MDDI; Securities Market Credit Risk Rank, or SMC Risk Rank; and comparison of the historical monthly levels of NYSE margin debt and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Meanwhile, our droogies at Seeking Alpha have published the following pieces on the subject this year:

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In July: Risk Rank At No. 30

NYSE Margin Debt Explodes To Near-Record High In June: Risk Rank At No. 1

NYSE Margin Debt Rises In May For First Time In 3 Months: Risk Rank At No. 21

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In April For Second Consecutive Month: Risk Rank At No. 53

NYSE Margin Debt Falls In March For First Time In 9 Months: Risk Rank At No. 55

NYSE Margin Debt Hits All-Time High Of $465.72 Billion In February, With Risk Rank At No. 2

NYSE Margin Debt Reaches Record $451.30 Billion In January, With Risk Rank At No. 10

NYSE Margin Debt Hits Record $444.93 Billion In December: Risk Rank At No. 1

NYSE Margin Debt As An Indicator Of Long-Term Movements In S&P 500

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 15, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 8, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 1, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 25, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 15, 2014

Multivariate analyses indicate my proprietary U.S. Economic Index may have hit its peak for the year last month, especially given the anticipated end of asset purchases under the absolutely large U.S. Federal Reserve quantitative-easing program and the expected beginning of such purchases under the relatively small European Central Bank QE program.

As we await confirmation or nonconfirmation of this suggested peak circa Oct. 3, I note our droogies at Seeking Alpha have published this year the following pieces on the USEI and the associated comparisons of the historical monthly levels of the index and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY):

SPY And U.S. Economic Index Climb Twin Peaks In August

SPY And U.S. Economic Index Behavioral Divergence Flip-Flops In July

SPY And U.S. Economic Index Behaviors Diverge In June

SPY And U.S. Economic Index Both Head Higher For Third Consecutive Month

S&P 500 And U.S. Economic Index Show Early Signs Of A Return To Normalcy

The S&P 500 And U.S. Economic Index Continue Decoupling

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Rises As U.S. Economic Index Falls

Assessing The SPDR S&P 500 ETF With The Aid Of The U.S. Economic Index

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 8, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 1, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 25, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 18, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 8, 2014

Meteorites hit this planet all the time, but the ones making impacts are few and far between, which means the heavenly body that apparently struck the Nicaraguan capital of Managua Saturday seemed to be kind of a rare thing.

As I finalize the latest article about my proprietary U.S. Economic Index, I am seeing the European Central Bank’s move into quantitative easing Thursday in the same light. The USEI-centered analysis should be published at either J.J.’s Risky Business or Seeking Alpha within a day or two.

Meanwhile, I had a couple of news stories of interest published at the International Business Times since the Risky Business Monitor linkfest last week, as follows:

China Will Be World’s Largest Economy In 2024: IHS

Shake Shack IPO Aiming For $1 Billion Valuation: Report

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Sept. 1, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 25, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 18, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 11, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 25, 2014

Fedspeak is reverberating in my mind at this moment with Federal Reserve Chair Janet L. Yellen delivering a major speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Friday and the Federal Open Market Committee releasing the minutes of its July 29-30 meeting Wednesday.

An interesting article on aspects of this Fedspeak appeared in the International Business Times Sunday. However, it was authored not by me but by Reuters: “Fed Should Lay Groundwork For Interest Rate Hikes: Officials.” Meanwhile, I anticipate publishing at least one piece on the U.S. economy-market relationship this week.

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 18, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 11, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 4, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: July 28, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 18, 2014

Multivariate analyses indicate my proprietary U.S. Economic Index either may have hit its peak for 2014 last month or might hit its peak for the year this month. Therefore, I can’t wait for my next USEI-centered article, which will be published at J.J.’s Risky Business or Seeking Alpha circa Sept. 5. Meanwhile, our droogies at SA have published this year the following pieces on the USEI and the associated comparisons of the historical monthly levels of the index and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY):

Assessing The SPDR S&P 500 ETF With The Aid Of The U.S. Economic Index

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Rises As U.S. Economic Index Falls

The S&P 500 And U.S. Economic Index Continue Decoupling

S&P 500 And U.S. Economic Index Show Early Signs Of A Return To Normalcy

SPY And U.S. Economic Index Both Head Higher For Third Consecutive Month

SPY And U.S. Economic Index Behaviors Diverge In June

SPY And U.S. Economic Index Behavioral Divergence Flip-Flops In July

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 11, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Aug. 4, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: July 28, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: July 21, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.