Risky Business Monitor: July 28, 2014

The New York Stock Exchange most likely will report its data on securities market credit for June today, late this month or early next month, which means I soon will be able to bring up-to-date my Margin Debt Directional Indicator, or MDDI; Securities Market Credit Risk Rank, or SMC Risk Rank; and comparison of the historical monthly levels of NYSE margin debt and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

It would be nice of NYSE to adopt a publication schedule for its three securities-market-credit data series, but the exchange has not done it during the past 197 years, so I am not exactly holding my breath as I await such a blessed event. My article on the June data will appear either at J.J.’s Risky Business or at Seeking Alpha. Meanwhile, our droogies at the latter site have published the following pieces on the subject this year:

NYSE Margin Debt As An Indicator Of Long-Term Movements In S&P 500

NYSE Margin Debt Hits Record $444.93 Billion In December: Risk Rank At No. 1

NYSE Margin Debt Reaches Record $451.30 Billion In January, With Risk Rank At No. 10

NYSE Margin Debt Hits All-Time High Of $465.72 Billion In February, With Risk Rank At No. 2

NYSE Margin Debt Falls In March For First Time In 9 Months: Risk Rank At No. 55

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In April For Second Consecutive Month: Risk Rank At No. 53

NYSE Margin Debt Rises In May For First Time In 3 Months: Risk Rank At No. 21

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Thirteen Ways of Looking at Risk

Risky Business Monitor: July 21, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: July 14, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: July 7, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: July 21, 2014

Ralph Waldo Emerson’s cogent observation that “[a] foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds” notwithstanding, I note that if I have said it once, then I have said it a zillion times: I hate redundancy. Nonetheless, I acknowledge my most recent J.J.’s Risky Business blog post bears more than a passing resemblance to my most recent J.J. McGrath’s Instablog post at Seeking Alpha, as reflected by the following recapitulated ruminations:

The Select Sector SPDRs carving the S&P 500 into nine slices may be unique in the exchange-traded fund universe: They serve not only as investing and trading vehicles but also as equity-market indicators, lagging, coincident and leading. Accordingly, I keep an eye (or two) on them at all times.

A few results of this many-faceted observation process can be found in a recent series of articles published at Seeking Alpha. In each of the nine pieces, I focus on a single sector SPDR: its behavior in the first half of this year relative to its parent’s proxy, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and all its siblings; its average monthly performances during the first full 15 years of its existence; and market-moving issues likely to have an effect on it in the foreseeable future (e.g., changes in policy at the U.S. Federal Reserve).

If you employ the sector SPDRs as market indicators, then you might want to read all of these articles. If you use a given sector SPDR as either an investing or a trading vehicle, then you might want to read the piece related to it. In any case, all nine of them are accessible via the hyperlinks appearing below:

Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLU’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLE’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLV’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLB’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLK’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLP’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLF’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLI’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLY’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: July 14, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: July 7, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: July 14, 2014

One way I have attempted to cut my risk in the financial markets during the past 11 years is by developing the Risky Business Daily Market Seismometer (and its forerunners). Each and every day, I assess the condition of the equity market by bringing up-to-date an assortment of spreadsheets based on multiple stock-market metrics.

This assessment is based partially on examination of these metrics as they apply to the Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded funds that break the S&P 500 into nine chunks. These sector SPDRs are the subjects of most articles appearing in the Risky Business Monitor this week, as follows:

Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLB’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLK’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLP’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLF’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLI’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLY’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

American Airlines Chooses CFM International LEAP-1A Engine In 100 Airbus A320neo Aircraft

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Risky Business Monitor: July 7, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: July 7, 2014

Long ago and far away, I was the editor of a weekly newspaper, where I claimed for half a dozen years to be The Most Published Writer in America. (Neither The Best nor The Brightest, but The Most Published.) The claim may or may not have been valid, but it certainly appeared so to me.

Anyway, I do not publish as much now as I did then, but there are enough articles bouncing around cyberspace these days that it seems a good idea to create a clearinghouse for hot links to my contemporary economic and market stories here at J.J.’s Risky Business. Thus, I am happy to introduce the Risky Business Monitor.

Here’s the lowdown on what’s up this week:

SPY And U.S. Economic Index Behaviors Diverge In June

NYSE Margin Debt Rises In May For First Time In 3 Months: Risk Rank At No. 21

Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLU’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLE’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF: XLV’s 2014 Halftime Report And Seasonality

IMF Chief Christine Lagarde Hints At Coming Downward Revision In World Economic Outlook