Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 22, 2014

The New York Stock Exchange released its data on securities market credit earlier this month than it historically has done most months, so over the weekend I was able to bring up-to-date the levels of my Margin Debt Directional Indicator, or MDDI, and my Securities Market Credit Risk Rank, or SMC Risk Rank, as well as the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of NYSE margin debt and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

Here are links to all the 2014 articles in this series centered on the risk of speculation in the equity market:

NYSE Margin Debt Climbs In November: Risk Rank At No. 22

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In October For First Time In Four Months: Risk Rank At No. 56

NYSE Margin Debt Inches Up In September: Risk Rank At No. 40

NYSE Margin Debt Edges Higher In August: Risk Rank At No. 23

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In July: Risk Rank At No. 30

NYSE Margin Debt Explodes To Near-Record High In June: Risk Rank At No. 1

NYSE Margin Debt Rises In May For First Time In 3 Months: Risk Rank At No. 21

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In April For Second Consecutive Month: Risk Rank At No. 53

NYSE Margin Debt Falls In March For First Time In 9 Months: Risk Rank At No. 55

NYSE Margin Debt Hits All-Time High Of $465.72 Billion In February, With Risk Rank At No. 2

NYSE Margin Debt Reaches Record $451.30 Billion In January, With Risk Rank At No. 10

NYSE Margin Debt Hits Record $444.93 Billion In December: Risk Rank At No. 1

NYSE Margin Debt As An Indicator Of Long-Term Movements In S&P 500

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 15, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 8, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 1, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 24, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 15, 2014

Facts are more important than opinions in my world, where I employ the former to grow the latter. A case in point: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s cessation of purchases under the first two of its three formal quantitative-easing programs was associated with significant periods of adjustment in equity prices in all three major market-capitalization classes, so the two consolidations related to the end of purchases under the last one of these programs appear completely unsurprising to me.

During the first consolidation, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) intraday declined to $181.92 Oct. 15 from $201.90 Sept. 19, a decrease of -$19.98, or 9.90 percent. During the second (and continuing) consolidation, SPY intraday dipped to $198.78 Monday from $208.47 Dec. 5, a drop of -$9.69, or 4.65 percent. And the most significant thing to me is that these two consolidations likely represent not the end but the beginning of the stock market’s latest period of adjustment, as indicated in these three articles at Seeking Alpha:

A Brief History Of QE In The U.S.: Focus On Large-Caps Via SPY

A Brief History Of QE In The U.S.: Focus On Mid-Caps Via MDY

A Brief History Of QE In The U.S.: Focus On Small-Caps Via IWM

Meanwhile, I also had a couple of pieces of interest published at the International Business Times over the weekend, as follows:

Apollo May Land PetSmart For $8 Billion In Largest US LBO Of 2014: Reports

‘Fundamentals’ Aren’t Greasing Crude Oil Price Slide: OPEC Chief

As it turned out, of course, it was not Apollo Global Management LLC (APO) but the privately held BC Partners Ltd. and its associates that eventually landed PetSmart Inc. (PETM), as Reuters later reported.

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 8, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 1, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 24, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 17, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 8, 2014

Seeking Alpha will make the third of the three data-intensive articles about U.S. Federal Reserve policy mentioned in past Risky Business Monitors publicly available early Wednesday. Because it builds on the framework of the preceding pieces, it may be the most interesting of all.

Meanwhile, here are links to a couple of stories published by Seeking Alpha in the past week:

A Brief History Of QE In The U.S.: Focus On Mid-Caps Via MDY

SPY And U.S. Economic Index Both Spike In November

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 1, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 24, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 17, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 10, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.

Risky Business Monitor: Dec. 1, 2014

The Institute for Supply Management published its November 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Monday and probably will publish its November 2014 Nonmanufacturing ISM Report On Business Wednesday, which means I soon will be able to bring up-to-date my proprietary U.S. Economic Index and the associated comparison of the historical monthly levels of the USEI and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). My article on these data series will appear either at J.J.’s Risky Business or at Seeking Alpha.

Also appearing at either of those locations this week will be the second of the three data-intensive pieces about U.S. Federal Reserve policy I mentioned in the past two Risky Business Monitors.

Meanwhile, here are links to three stories of note published by either the International Business Times or Seeking Alpha in the past week:

A Brief History Of QE In The U.S.: Focus On Large-Caps Via SPY

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In October For First Time In Four Months: Risk Rank At No. 56

Crude Oil Does The Limbo: How Low Can It Go?

Related Reading

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 24, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 17, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 10, 2014

Risky Business Monitor: Nov. 3, 2014

Shameless Self-Promotion! If you like my work, then you can follow me as J.J. McGrath at Google+ and Seeking Alpha, as JJMcGrath at StockTwits and @JJMcGrath3000 at Twitter. If you do not like my work, then you can follow me at all those places, anyway.